In recent weeks, US President Donald Trump and other members of his administration several times have threatened to use military force against North Korea. But the USA willing to carry out any military option raises a significant risk of military escalation by the North, including the use of nuclear weapons against the US allies – South Korea and Japan.
Since 2011, the DPRK has conduct 98 ballistic missile tests, which have resulted more perfect missiles. Nowadays some experts are saying that the North has the capacity to arm ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and has a nuclear arsenal estimated at around 20 to 25 nuclear warheads with yields in the 15-25 kiloton range.
Next, the goal of the North Korean regime is to be ensuring the continuation of the Kim family by the restrains of the USA on nuclear weapons. But the DPRK steps to its goal by the nuclear missile program are considered by Washington as “provocative and destabilizing”. Multiple sanctions imposed on North Korea hadn’t effect; the DPRK is continuing to move towards the goal. The USA is guilty of such behavior of North Korea: the overthrow disagreeable leaders in a number of countries which hadn’t nuclear powers has formed strong immunity for Kim Jong Un against a diplomatic solution to the question.
So, we have a question: if the status quo is unacceptable and diplomacy has been ineffective, then when should the word wait for military action on the Korean peninsula? And most importantly, if “unthinkable” happens then what will fatal consequences be for the main US allies in Asia? Let’s suppose that experts are right and North Korea has 25 nuclear missiles. And let us assume that it will decide to launch its entire arsenal against both Seoul and Tokyo in case of the US attack. According to the experts’ estimations, the warhead power (current and possible future capabilities) is from 15 to 250 kiloton.
There are dozen of variables in calculating the potential effects of nuclear detonations on population centers. But it’s clear that the more the population density the higher human losses. Nowadays the population density in the centers of Seoul and Tokyo is very high. For example, the population density of Seoul Special City is 17002/km2, the population density of Tokyo’s Special Wards is 14950/km2. During the work week these rates are higher.
So, human losses expected by experts are about 697665 killed and 2474627 injured in the center of Tokyo, and 783197 killed and 2778009 injured in the center of Seoul.
Just think about it: possible human losses would be 6733498 people. Maybe is it a reason for South Korea to give up provocative drills with the USA and stop teasing the neighbor? Games with matches not far from a powder-barrel are no good for anybody ever.